2025 San Mateo County Market Recap & 2026 Outlook: A Year of Resilience and Rally

As 2025 draws to a close, it's a great time to pause and reflect on the San Mateo County real estate market. This year proved to be anything but predictable, showcasing both unexpected challenges and remarkable resilience, particularly right here in the Peninsula.

The Year in Review: Odd Seasonality, Strong Finish 

The 2025 market experience was defined by an odd seasonality. We saw a surprisingly disappointing spring and early fall, phases usually marked by peak activity. Buyers and sellers alike were navigating the shifting economic sands, leading to a temporary slowdown.

However, the late fall and early winter markets truly rallied. This surge demonstrated the deep, underlying demand for property in our unique corner of the Bay Area.

Several key factors impacted the year's performance:

• Interest Rate Fluctuations: The continuing changes in interest rates created uncertainty, causing many buyers to hold off during the slower months.
  
  
• Stock Market Volatility: Broader economic instability, particularly in tech valuations, added another layer of caution for local buyers tied to the stock market.
  
  
• The AI Boom: Fortunately, our region’s market is strongly insulated by the success of the tech industry. The booming Artificial Intelligence sector and the growth of local AI companies injected significant confidence and capital back into the Peninsula, driving the late-year surge.

2025 San Mateo County Market at a Glance

Despite the unique headwinds the market faced this year, the overall volume of transactions in San Mateo County proves the market's fundamental strength. Specifically, the county concluded 2025 with a total sales volume of $9,695,219,570, representing 3,666 sold properties across the region. These figures underscore the continued, significant investment and demand in Peninsula real estate.

Looking Ahead to 2026

What does this tell us about the coming year? While no one has a crystal ball, the late-year rally suggests the market has absorbed the biggest shocks of 2025.

My outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism. Barring a major economic event, I anticipate a return to more normalized seasonal trends. The core demand remains incredibly strong, and as buyers adapt to the new interest rate environment, we expect to see them return to the market in force. For sellers, proper pricing and strategic marketing will be more crucial than ever to capture buyer attention.

Kevin's 2025 Successes

It was a privilege to help so many clients achieve their real estate goals this year. Here are a few examples of how we navigated the 2025 market to secure fantastic results:

LISTING SUCCESSES

2310 Wooster Avenue, Belmont

Sold for $2,300,000. I’m excited to share this spectacular home is officially sold! With panoramic city and bay views and a massive sun deck perfect for entertaining, this gem quickly captured the attention of multiple buyers.

 590 Stanford Ave, Redwood City

This beautifully upgraded 3-bed, 2-bath ranch-style home is now sold! Nestled in a prime location, the home's freshly updated interior and abundant natural light made it ready to welcome its next chapter. Congratulations to our clients!

BUYER WINS

1447 Grand Ave, Pacifica

Thrilled to help my clients secure this stunning 4BR, 2.5BA home! A truly exceptional find just blocks from Linda Mar Beach and hiking trails, all framed by breathtaking ocean views.

460 Olive Street, Menlo Park

Absolutely thrilled to announce the successful closing of this magnificent Carmel-style home! Helping my clients secure this unique and highly sought-after property was a huge win.

FEATURED ACTIVE LISTING

229 Marvilla Circle, Pacifica

Welcome to Linda Mar's most exclusive enclave! This substantial floor plan features four large ensuite bedrooms and a light-filled chef's kitchen. Enjoy seamless indoor/outdoor flow and walk to all of Pacifica's hotspots—the perfect home for those who dream of beautiful sunsets and sea breezes.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy.

Whether you are thinking of selling, buying, or simply looking to understand the value of your largest asset, the best way to achieve your real estate goals in 2026 is to create a concrete, strategic plan.

Let's start the new year off on the right foot together. I can help you analyze the market specific to your neighborhood and property type, outlining the steps you need to take to succeed in any market condition.

Ready to plan your 2026 real estate journey? Reach out today for a confidential, no-obligation consultation. Email me at kevin@pickettrealestategroup.com or call 415.283.7919.

San Mateo County Rolling 3-Month Data

Below, our data is based on averages for Single-family homes in San Mateo County over the last 90 days (September 2025 to November 2025). This data was gathered on December 1, 2025. 

Thinking of selling? 

I'd love to discuss your home's value and positioning in the current market. Call or text Kevin at 415.283.7919 or email Kevin at Kevin@PickettRealEstateGroup.com