Why San Mateo County Continues to Outperform San Francisco and Why That Matters

When people talk about the Bay Area housing market, it is often treated as a single story. In reality, the region has become more fragmented than ever. One of the clearest divides right now is between San Francisco County and San Mateo County.

Although these counties sit right next to each other, their housing markets are responding very differently to today’s conditions. For buyers and sellers alike, understanding that difference is increasingly important.

A Tale of Two Markets

San Francisco County and San Mateo County share a border, but their recent market behavior tells two distinct stories.

In San Francisco, certain segments of the market, particularly condos, continue to experience longer days on market and greater price sensitivity. Shifts in work patterns, buyer preferences, and neighborhood-specific inventory have led to uneven demand across the city.

San Mateo County, by comparison, has remained more consistent. While the market has adjusted from the heightened pace of previous years, pricing trends have been steadier and buyer engagement more reliable, especially for single-family homes. Rather than sharp swings, the Peninsula has seen gradual, measured movement.

This contrast is not about one market struggling while the other thrives. It reflects differences in housing mix, buyer priorities, and long-term demand patterns.

Why San Mateo County Remains More Resilient

Several factors continue to support San Mateo County’s relative strength.

Lifestyle and Livability

Peninsula communities offer a balance that continues to attract buyers. Larger homes, quieter neighborhoods, access to outdoor spaces, and highly regarded schools all contribute to strong long-term appeal. These qualities resonate with buyers looking for stability rather than short-term market timing.

Commuter Flexibility

San Mateo County benefits from its central position between San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Caltrain access and flexible commute options make the area appealing to professionals with hybrid or evolving work schedules. Buyers value having options, and the Peninsula provides them.

A Well-Qualified Buyer Pool

Buyer demand in San Mateo County is supported by well-qualified purchasers with stable incomes and long-term plans. These buyers tend to approach purchases thoughtfully, which helps reduce volatility and supports consistent market activity even during broader economic shifts.

Balanced Inventory Conditions

Inventory in San Mateo County remains limited, particularly for single-family homes. This is not driven by overbuilding or sudden changes in supply, but by the county’s established housing stock and measured pace of new development. The result is a market that tends to adjust gradually rather than abruptly.

What This Means for San Mateo County Homeowners

For homeowners considering selling, San Mateo County’s stability is a meaningful advantage.

Buyer demand remains present for homes that are well-located, properly priced, and thoughtfully prepared. While buyers are more selective than in the past, they are still active and motivated. Compared to neighboring markets, sellers in San Mateo County continue to benefit from a deeper pool of serious buyers.

Homes that align with current expectations are selling with consistency, reinforcing home values and providing sellers with confidence when planning their next move.

What This Means for Buyers, Especially Those Looking Beyond San Francisco

For buyers currently focused on San Francisco, San Mateo County represents a compelling alternative.

The Peninsula market remains competitive, but it is often more predictable. Buyers are less likely to encounter dramatic price swings and more likely to find neighborhoods that support long-term ownership. Many buyers discover that the value equation extends beyond price alone and includes space, lifestyle, and neighborhood stability.

Opportunities still exist for buyers who are prepared and open-minded, particularly in homes that need modest updates or in communities that have not yet seen peak demand.

Kevin’s Take

San Mateo County continues to perform well because it is grounded in fundamentals.

For buyers coming from San Francisco, the Peninsula offers a comfortable and practical transition with strong long-term appeal. For homeowners in San Mateo County, the market continues to reward patience and preparation. Buyer demand remains real, and home values are supported by limited supply and sustained interest.

This is a market driven by people who want to live here, not by short-term trends. That distinction makes all the difference.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy.

Whether you are a buyer exploring Peninsula neighborhoods or a homeowner considering your next step, having a clear, local strategy is essential.

I am happy to review current conditions specific to your neighborhood and property type and help you evaluate the best path forward based on today’s market realities.

Ready to plan your 2026 real estate journey? Reach out today for a confidential, no-obligation consultation. Email me at kevin@pickettrealestategroup.com or call 415.283.7919.

San Mateo County Rolling 3-Month Data

Below, our data is based on averages for Single-family homes in San Mateo County over the last 90 days (October 2025 to December 2025). This data was gathered on January 13, 2026. 

Thinking of selling? 

I'd love to discuss your home's value and positioning in the current market. Call or text Kevin at 415.283.7919 or email Kevin at Kevin@PickettRealEstateGroup.com