Can San Mateo County Build Its Way Out of the Housing Crisis?

If you’re a homeowner in San Mateo County, you might hear about ambitious housing goals and think:

“Wait—what does this mean for my property value?”

You’re not alone. When you’ve invested $2 million in a home—often because supply has been historically limited—it’s only natural to feel uneasy about thousands of new units going up nearby.

What’s Happening—and Why It Matters

From 2023 to 2031, cities across San Mateo County are being asked to plan for nearly 48,000 new homes under the state’s RHNA (Regional Housing Needs Allocation) goals. For example, San Mateo alone must permit over 7,000 units, and other cities like Redwood City, Burlingame, and Menlo Park are facing similar targets.

These numbers feel big—and they are. But they’re also necessary. Years of underbuilding have made housing here both expensive and scarce. The risk now isn’t that we build too much. It’s that we don’t build enough and price out entire generations.

Here’s a breakdown of RHNA housing targets for seven key cities in the county:

These numbers are ambitious. In many cities, they reflect several times more housing than was built in the past decade. But hitting these goals could fundamentally reshape access, affordability, and livability in the region.

Will All This New Housing Hurt My Home Value?

In short: not likely. Here’s why.

• Slower growth isn’t the same as decline. Adding housing can ease runaway price increases, but home values in desirable markets like San Mateo County tend to remain resilient.

• Most new construction won’t be in your backyard. It’s focused on transit corridors, underutilized commercial zones, and higher-density sites—not single-family neighborhoods.

• Housing stability helps long-term value. Volatile markets driven by scarcity can backfire. A steady pipeline of new supply supports economic strength and buyer confidence.

Think of it this way: controlled supply growth protects your investment by preventing extreme booms and painful busts.

What About Buyers Thinking of Entering the Market?

If you're on the fence about buying, this market shift could work in your favor.

Yes, prices are still high—but if cities follow through on their housing plans, we could see less bidding war pressure, more inventory, and steadier pricing over time. That’s a healthier buying environment.

And real estate in coastal California still remains one of the most durable long-term investments, especially when inventory stays well below demand—even with new development.

Bottom Line: The Path Forward Is Clear

San Mateo County can build its way out of the housing crisis—if cities step up. And while change is never easy, it doesn’t have to come at the expense of current homeowners.

In fact, if done right, it strengthens your community, protects your equity, and builds a future where more people can live where they work—including your own family.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options, I'm here to help you navigate the market with confidence.Let’s connect and talk about how homeownership can benefit you in today’s market! Email me at kevin@pickettrealestategroup.com or call me at 415.283.7919 

San Mateo County Rolling 3-Month Data

Below, our data is based on averages for Single-family homes in San Mateo County over the last 90 days (March 2025 to May 2025). This data was gathered on June 2, 2025. 

San Mateo County Market Report

Thinking of selling? 

I'd love to discuss your home's value and positioning in the current market. Call or text Kevin at 415.283.7919 or email Kevin at Kevin@PickettRealEstateGroup.com