Do You Think the Housing Market’s About To Crash? Read This First 

Lately, it feels like everyone’s asking the same question: “Is the housing market about to crash?”

If you’ve been scrolling through social media or watching the news, you’ve probably seen some pretty alarming headlines. And you’re not alone in feeling uncertain—according to a recent survey by Clever Real Estate, 70% of Americans are worried about a housing crash in 2025.

But before you hit pause on your plans to buy or sell a home, here’s the good news: The housing market isn’t crashing. It’s shifting. And that shift might just be in your favor. 

Low Inventory Is Keeping the Market Afloat

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains it simply: “There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.” That’s a key point. In any market, when there’s a shortage of supply—whether it’s homes, hot concert tickets, or holiday flights—prices go up. That’s what we’re still seeing in the real estate world.

Check out the white line for 2025 in the graph below. Even though the number of homes for sale is climbing, data from Realtor.com shows we’re still well below normal levels (shown in gray):

What About in San Mateo County?

Here in San Mateo County, we’re seeing the effects of this dynamic up close. Inventory has ticked up modestly, which would typically signal a cooling off—but instead of prices dropping, we’re seeing slower growth.

Usually, spring is the peak season for real estate, with fierce competition and steep price gains. But this year, even with more homes for sale, buyers are being a little more cautious. That’s leading to a more measured pace of appreciation, not a decline.

It’s not a sign of a crash—it’s a sign of stabilization.

That low inventory is what’s preventing prices from plummeting. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), puts it: “. . . if there’s a shortage, prices simply cannot crash.”

Economic Uncertainty Adds to the Anxiety—But Not Collapse

Let’s address the elephant in the room: economic uncertainty.

Concerns about a possible recession, rising consumer debt, and inflation are making people nervous about big financial decisions. However, these macroeconomic headwinds haven’t stopped buyers from entering the housing market.

If anything, real estate is increasingly seen as a stable investment, especially when compared to more volatile sectors like tech stocks or cryptocurrency.

Buyers with longer-term outlooks know that owning a home offers both personal security and financial resilience. In uncertain times, the tangible, enduring nature of real estate becomes even more attractive.

Price Growth Is Slowing—And That’s a Good Thing

As inventory continues to build slowly, that’s easing the pressure on price growth. We’re not seeing the double-digit spikes of the pandemic years—and that’s a sign of a healthier market.

According to Freddie Mac: “In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”

Translation? Prices are still going up, just not as fast. That’s welcome news for buyers who’ve been facing affordability challenges, and it allows sellers to still benefit from appreciation—without fueling a bubble.

Bottom Line: No Crash, Just a New Normal

So, is the housing market about to crash?
Experts say no.

As Business Insider puts it: “. . . economists who study housing market conditions generally do not expect a crash in 2025 or beyond unless the economic outlook changes.”

Instead, we’re moving into a more balanced, stable market—where buyers and sellers can operate with greater confidence and less frenzy.

If you're thinking of making a move, the best thing you can do is talk to a local real estate agent. They’ll help you understand what’s happening in your specific neighborhood and how to make the most of today’s shifting market.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options, I'm here to help you navigate the market with confidence.Let’s connect and talk about how homeownership can benefit you in today’s market! Email me at kevin@pickettrealestategroup.com or call me at 415.283.7919 

San Mateo County Rolling 3-Month Data

Below, our data is based on averages for Single-family homes in San Mateo County over the last 90 days (January 2025 to March 2025). This data was gathered on May 5, 2025. 

San Mateo County Market Report

Thinking of selling? 

I'd love to discuss your home's value and positioning in the current market. Call or text Kevin at 415.283.7919 or email Kevin at Kevin@PickettRealEstateGroup.com