The Bay Area’s Rebound Starts in San Mateo County: How AI Is Re-Energizing the Market

After months of relative calm, the San Mateo County housing market is seeing unmistakable momentum again. The driver isn’t seasonal—it’s structural. The surge of AI investment and hiring across the Peninsula is creating a new wave of qualified buyers, reshaping demand patterns from South San Francisco to Menlo Park.

Recent reports highlight that the Bay Area’s housing market is heating up quickly, with tech-sector income growth fueling confidence and competition. And nowhere is that more visible than right here in San Mateo County.

The AI Effect: From Research Labs to Real Estate

The national conversation about artificial intelligence might sound abstract, but its impact here is tangible. San Mateo County sits at the center of the AI corridor—home to start-ups in Burlingame and San Mateo, venture hubs in Menlo Park, and proximity to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google’s DeepMind teams just minutes away in San Francisco and Mountain View.

As these companies expand, they’re bringing in well-paid engineers, data scientists, and executives who are eager to live near the action. That demand is flowing directly into the housing market: more touring activity, faster absorption of listings, and renewed upward pressure on prices, especially for turnkey single-family homes and modern condos near transit.

Unlike the speculative surges of past tech booms, this one is tied to strong salaries and stock compensation already being realized. These are buyers who can move quickly and confidently—and they are.

What’s Changing on the Ground in San Mateo County

• Speed: Homes that lingered in the spring are now selling in days, not weeks. In San Mateo and Belmont, we’re again seeing open houses with steady foot traffic and buyers making early offers to avoid competition.
• Segment Splits: Demand is strongest for renovated, move-in-ready homes in walkable neighborhoods and near Caltrain or major employers. Properties in Foster City, San Carlos, and Redwood City—areas that balance lifestyle with commute convenience—are attracting multiple offers.
• Confidence: The buyer psychology has shifted. High-earning buyers from the AI and biotech sectors are confident in their long-term income outlook and want to secure property before prices climb further.
• Inventory Pressure: Supply remains tight, particularly for single-family homes under $2 million. While higher interest rates kept many homeowners from listing earlier in the year, some are returning now to take advantage of stronger demand and improved pricing power.

What This Means If You’re Buying

In this kind of market, readiness is everything. Get fully pre-approved, have your disclosures reviewed early, and work with an agent who knows how to identify value in a fast-moving landscape.

The best opportunities are still in the details—slightly older homes that can be updated over time, or townhomes and condos in established communities like Foster City’s Treasure Isle or Redwood Shores. Acting decisively and strategically can still secure value even as competition returns.

What This Means If You’re Selling

If your home is well-located and well-prepared, this is the moment to step forward. Buyers are back, but they’re discerning. Presentation and pricing are everything.

Updated interiors, professional marketing, and timing your launch before the next wave of listings can make the difference between multiple offers and sitting on the market. The renewed buyer pool—driven by AI-sector growth and returning office requirements—is focused squarely on Peninsula communities with lifestyle appeal and strong schools.

My Take

This rebound feels different. It’s not fueled by speculation or short-term hype—it’s grounded in new, sustained economic growth. San Mateo County has always been a bellwether for the Bay Area housing market, and once again, it’s leading the way.

If you paused your plans earlier this year, it may be time to reassess. With well-qualified buyers back in circulation and inventory still limited, this could be one of the most balanced windows we’ve seen in years—for both sides of the transaction.

Thinking of making a move? Let’s talk strategy.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options, I’m here to help you navigate the market with confidence. Email me at kevin@pickettrealestategroup.com or call 415.283.7919.

San Mateo County Rolling 3-Month Data

Below, our data is based on averages for Single-family homes in San Mateo County over the last 90 days (August 2025 to October 2025). This data was gathered on November 4, 2025. 

Thinking of selling? 

I'd love to discuss your home's value and positioning in the current market. Call or text Kevin at 415.283.7919 or email Kevin at Kevin@PickettRealEstateGroup.com